霸刀分享-2025年钴价暴涨，供应链重塑下的赢家浮出水面
2025年钴价经历了一场大爆发，年初尚在低谷徘徊，随后便一路飙升。这一现象背后，主要是全球最大的钴供应国刚果（金）采取了一系列行动。2月下旬，刚果（金）宣布暂停钴出口四个月，之后又多次延期，并实行了配额制，导致全球钴供应量大幅减少。与此同时，新能源汽车、消费电子等行业对钴的需求却持续上涨，市场从供过于求转变为供不应求，钴价因此大幅上涨。
从供应链格局来看，刚果（金）的举措使全球钴市场供应结构发生巨大变化。此前供应过剩的情况不再，市场逐步转向供需平衡，甚至从2026年开始可能出现一定短缺。而在需求端，钴的需求在未来几年将保持不错的增长。消费电子领域一直是钴的需求大户，尽管三元电池份额有所下降，但新能源车总量的快速上升，使三元电池装车量仍在增加，带动了钴需求。此外，若固态电池技术成熟并实现大规模商业化量产，将成为拉动钴需求的新增长点。
在此背景下，有几家企业成为潜在赢家。洛阳钼业是全球钴市场的一匹黑马，其在刚果（金）拥有TFM、KFM两座世界级铜钴矿。随着项目建成，钴年产量从2019年不足两万吨增长到2024年的11万吨以上，超过嘉能可、华友钴业等老牌竞争对手，全球份额占比高达四成，成为全球第一。2025年上半年，公司净利润达86.71亿元，同比增长60.07%。尽管刚果（金）实行配额制，但它2026年能拿到超3万吨配额，占刚果（金）基础配额的三分之一，钴价上涨将带动其利润增长。
华友钴业是钴产业链一体化的龙头企业，业务覆盖钴矿开采、冶炼加工及三元前驱体领域，在刚果（金）也有钴矿资源布局。2023年钴原料自给率为50%-60%。2025年前三季度，该公司实现营业收入589.41亿元，同比增长29.57%；归母净利润42.16亿元，同比增长39.59%。此外，它提前在印尼开展镍钴项目，既能避开刚果（金）的限制，又能凭借低成本资源增加盈利。
格林美作为国内关键金属资源回收利用的领军企业，年循环再生的钴资源超过中国原钴开采量的350%。2025年上半年，其印尼镍资源项目自产钴金属3667吨，同比增长125%，有效对冲了刚果（金）长达6个月的钴禁运影响。钴价上涨也将使它回收的钴价值增加，利润有望进一步提升。
在2025年钴价暴涨和供应链重塑的大环境下，洛阳钼业、华友钴业、格林美等企业凭借自身的资源优势、产业链布局和应对策略，成为这场变革中的赢家。然而，市场充满变数，钴价受全球经济、供需关系、政策等多种因素影响，未来这些企业能否继续保持优势，仍有待观察它们能否灵活应对各种挑战。但就目前情况而言，它们已在这场钴价风暴中占据有利位置。
In 2025, the price of cobalt soared, and the winners emerged amid the reshaping of the supply chain
In 2025, the price of cobalt experienced a major surge. At the beginning of the year, it was still lingering at a low point, but then it soared all the way. Behind this phenomenon, the main reason is that the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the world's largest cobalt supplier, has taken a series of actions. In late February, the Democratic Republic of the Congo announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports, which was later extended several times and a quota system was implemented, resulting in a significant reduction in global cobalt supply. Meanwhile, the demand for cobalt in industries such as new energy vehicles and consumer electronics has continued to rise. The market has shifted from oversupply to shortage, and as a result, the price of cobalt has risen sharply.
From the perspective of the supply chain pattern, the measures taken by the Democratic Republic of the Congo have brought about significant changes in the global cobalt market supply structure. The previous situation of oversupply is no longer there, and the market is gradually moving towards a balance between supply and demand. Even starting from 2026, there may be a certain shortage. On the demand side, the demand for cobalt is expected to maintain a considerable growth in the coming years. The consumer electronics sector has long been a major consumer of cobalt. Although the share of ternary batteries has declined, the rapid increase in the total number of new energy vehicles has still led to an increase in the installation volume of ternary batteries, driving up the demand for cobalt. In addition, if solid-state battery technology matures and achieves large-scale commercial mass production, it will become a new growth point driving the demand for cobalt.
Against this backdrop, several enterprises have emerged as potential winners. China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is a dark horse in the global cobalt market. It owns two world-class copper-cobalt mines, TFM and KFM, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. With the completion of the project, the annual cobalt output has increased from less than 20,000 tons in 2019 to over 110,000 tons in 2024, surpassing established competitors such as Glencore and Huayou Cobalt. Its global share has reached as high as 40%, making it the world's number one. In the first half of 2025, the company's net profit reached 8.671 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 60.07%. Although the Democratic Republic of the Congo implements a quota system, it will be able to obtain over 30,000 tons of quotas in 2026, accounting for one-third of the country's basic quotas. The increase in cobalt prices will drive its profit growth.
Huayou Cobalt is a leading enterprise in the integrated cobalt industry chain, with business covering cobalt mining, smelting and processing, as well as ternary precursors. It also has cobalt resource layouts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The self-sufficiency rate of cobalt raw materials in 2023 will be 50% to 60%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 58.941 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.57%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% year-on-year. In addition, by launching the nickel-cobalt project in Indonesia in advance, it can not only avoid the restrictions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo but also increase profits by leveraging low-cost resources.
As a leading domestic enterprise in the recycling and utilization of key metal resources, GEM recycles and regenerates more than 350% of China's original cobalt production annually. In the first half of 2025, its nickel resource project in Indonesia produced 3,667 tons of cobalt metal on its own, a year-on-year increase of 125%, effectively offsetting the six-month cobalt embargo imposed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The increase in cobalt prices will also raise the value of the cobalt it recovers, and its profits are expected to rise further.
In the context of a sharp increase in cobalt prices and a reshaping of supply chains in 2025, enterprises such as China Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and GEM have emerged as winners in this transformation by leveraging their resource advantages, industrial chain layouts, and response strategies. However, the market is full of uncertainties. The price of cobalt is influenced by various factors such as the global economy, supply and demand relationships, and policies. Whether these enterprises can maintain their advantages in the future remains to be seen and whether they can flexibly respond to various challenges. But as things stand now, they have taken a favorable position in this cobalt price storm.