霸刀分享-2025年钨价翻倍，供需失衡下产业链将何去何从？
近日，2025年钨价的大幅波动引发行业广泛关注。截至11月，黑钨精矿价格达31万元/吨，较年初翻倍；仲钨酸铵（APT）突破45万元/吨，创历史新高。韩国六氟化钨供应商已通知三星、SK海力士等半导体企业，计划明年将价格上调70%-90%，成本压力正向产业链下游传导。
此次钨价飙升的主要原因是供需失衡。供应端面临政策与资源的双重约束。2025年国内钨矿开采配额同比缩减6.45%，江西主产区降幅超10%，中小矿企开工率仅35%。同时，APT冶炼厂库存不足200吨，社会库存仅支撑15天需求，贸易商普遍惜售。
而需求端，新兴领域成为增长引擎。光伏钨丝需求同比增长198%，渗透率从20%升至60%，每GW耗钨8.2吨；半导体靶材需求同比增长72%，英伟达H200 GPU单颗需3 - 5片钨靶材；军工穿甲弹需求同比增长42%，地缘冲突推动战略储备需求；固态电池材料需求同比增长300%，钨酸锂正极材料进入研发供货阶段。
钨价的大幅上涨对行业产生了多方面影响。上游企业业绩爆发，中钨高新前三季度净利润同比增长18.26%，翔鹭钨业增幅达259.65%。中游冶炼企业则面临一定压力，APT价格涨幅（101.4%）低于原料端，部分企业利润空间被压缩。下游制造企业如半导体、光伏企业面临成本上升的问题，这可能推动终端产品涨价。
With tungsten prices doubling in 2025, where will the industrial chain go under the imbalance between supply and demand?
Recently, the significant fluctuations in tungsten prices in 2025 have drawn widespread attention from the industry. As of November, the price of black tungsten concentrate reached 310,000 yuan per ton, doubling compared to the beginning of the year. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) has exceeded 450,000 yuan per ton, reaching a new historical high. South Korean suppliers of tungsten hexafluoride have informed semiconductor companies such as Samsung and SK Hynix that they plan to raise prices by 70% to 90% next year, and the cost pressure is being passed on to the downstream of the industrial chain.
The main reason for the sharp increase in tungsten prices this time is the imbalance between supply and demand. The supply side is confronted with dual constraints of policies and resources. In 2025, the domestic tungsten mining quota will be reduced by 6.45% year-on-year. The decline in the main production areas of Jiangxi Province will exceed 10%, and the operating rate of small and medium-sized mining enterprises will only be 35%. Meanwhile, the inventory of APT smelters is less than 200 tons, and the social inventory can only support the demand for 15 days. Traders are generally reluctant to sell.
On the demand side, emerging fields have become growth engines. The demand for photovoltaic tungsten filament increased by 198% year-on-year, the penetration rate rose from 20% to 60%, and 8.2 tons of tungsten were consumed per GW. The demand for semiconductor target materials has increased by 72% year-on-year. A single NVIDIA H200 GPU requires 3 to 5 tungsten target materials. The demand for military armor-piercing shells has increased by 42% year-on-year, and geopolitical conflicts have driven the demand for strategic reserves. The demand for solid-state battery materials has increased by 300% year-on-year, and lithium tungstate cathode materials have entered the research and development and supply stage.
The sharp increase in tungsten prices has had multiple impacts on the industry. The performance of upstream enterprises has seen a boom. China Tungsten High-Tech's net profit in the first three quarters increased by 18.26% year-on-year, while Xianglu Tungsten's growth rate reached 259.65%. Midstream smelting enterprises are under certain pressure. The price increase of APT (101.4%) is lower than that of the raw material end, and the profit margins of some enterprises have been compressed. Downstream manufacturing enterprises such as semiconductor and photovoltaic companies are facing the problem of rising costs, which may drive up the prices of terminal products.