近日，结合最新统计与分析的2025年全球制造业数据及亚洲地区表现出炉，核心结论显示，全球制造业呈现“弱复苏、强分化”格局，亚洲成为核心增长极。    

数据表明，2025年全球制造业整体处于弱势复苏状态。全年全球制造业PMI均值为49.6%，较2024年微升0.3个百分点，但仍连续10个月处于收缩区间（49%-50%）。从季度波动来看，Q1相对平稳，均值为49.9%；Q2受关税政策冲击明显走弱，均值降至49.3%；Q3   -   Q4小幅回升，均值均为49.6%。同时，区域分化显著，亚洲是唯一持续扩张区域，PMI均值为50.8%，虽同比下降0.1%，但增速居首；非洲恢复力度增强，PMI均值为50.2%，同比上升0.7%；美洲持续弱势，PMI均值为48.8%，与2024年持平，Q4降至47.9%；欧洲降幅收窄但仍疲软，PMI均值为48.8%，同比上升1.1%。    

亚洲制造业在2025年实现了稳定扩张，成为全球经济复苏的重要支撑。全年亚洲制造业PMI均值50.8%，连续7个月高于50%荣枯线，Q4加速至51%以上，对全球经济复苏贡献率达60%。主要国家发挥了驱动作用，中国PMI逐季回升，12月站上50%；印度PMI长期高于55%，增速领先；东盟的泰国、印尼、越南PMI稳居53%以上，马来西亚、缅甸也有小幅扩张。其关键成功因素在于区域合作深化，RCEP生效红利释放，推动了产业链融合与贸易便利化；内生动力增强，中印消费与投资双引擎发力，技术升级推动生产率提升；同时通过市场多元化布局及供应链韧性强化有效抵御了外部冲击。    

对于2026年，IMF等机构预测亚洲经济增速将达4.5%，仍是全球经济“稳定器”，中国财政、货币政策协同发力，经济回升态势将得到巩固。不过，全球不确定性依然存在，下行风险包括地缘冲突、贸易保护主义（WTO预测2026年全球贸易增速仅0.5%），但也有积极信号，如全球通胀压力缓解，AI投资热潮或催生新动能。    

The   global manufacturing industry as a whole is experiencing a weak recovery    

Recently,   the 2025 global manufacturing data and the performance of the Asian region,   based on the latest statistics and analysis, were released. The core   conclusion shows that the global manufacturing industry presents a pattern of   "weak recovery and strong differentiation", with Asia becoming the   core growth pole.    

Data   indicates that the global manufacturing industry as a whole will be in a weak   recovery state in 2025. The average global manufacturing PMI for the whole   year was 49.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from 2024, but it still remained in   the contraction range (49%-50%) for 10 consecutive months. From the   perspective of quarterly fluctuations, Q1 was relatively stable, with an   average of 49.9%. Q2 was significantly weakened due to the impact of tariff   policies, with the average value dropping to 49.3%. There was a slight   recovery in Q3 to Q4, with an average of 49.6% each time. Meanwhile, regional   differentiation was significant. Asia was the only region that continued to   expand. The average PMI was 50.8%, although it decreased by 0.1%   year-on-year, its growth rate was the highest. Africa's recovery has   strengthened, with an average PMI of 50.2%, up 0.7% year-on-year. The   Americas remained weak, with the average PMI at 48.8%, the same as in 2024,   and dropped to 47.9% in Q4. The decline in Europe narrowed but remained weak,   with the average PMI at 48.8%, up 1.1% year-on-year.    

In   2025, Asian manufacturing achieved stable expansion and became an important   support for global economic recovery. The average Asian manufacturing PMI for   the whole year was 50.8%, remaining above the 50% boom-bust line for seven   consecutive months. It accelerated to above 51% in Q4, contributing 60% to   the global economic recovery. Major countries have played a driving role.   China's PMI has been rising quarter by quarter and surpassed 50% in December.   India's PMI has remained above 55% for a long time, leading in growth rate.   The PMI of Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam in ASEAN remained above 53%, while   Malaysia and Myanmar also saw slight expansions. The key success factor lies   in the deepening of regional cooperation and the release of dividends from   the entry into force of RCEP, which has promoted the integration of   industrial chains and trade facilitation. The endogenous driving force has   been strengthened. The dual engines of consumption and investment in China   and India are exerting force, and technological upgrading is promoting   productivity improvement. At the same time, through diversified market layout   and strengthened supply chain resilience, it has effectively resisted   external shocks.    

For   2026, institutions such as the IMF predict that the economic growth rate in   Asia will reach 4.5%, remaining a "stabilizer" for the global   economy. With the coordinated efforts of China's fiscal and monetary   policies, the economic recovery trend will be consolidated. However, global   uncertainties still exist. Downside risks include geopolitical conflicts and   trade protectionism (the WTO predicts that global trade growth will only be   0.5% in 2026), but there are also positive signals, such as the easing of   global inflationary pressure and the potential emergence of new momentum in   AI investment.    

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