价格走势近况

近期有色金属价格整体呈现上涨态势。2025年12月22 - 24日，贵金属价格全面暴涨，刺激A股有色金属板块爆发。12月26日，截至13:50，有色金属ETF(512400)上涨4.11%，跟踪指数中证申万有色金属指数强势上涨4.09%。12月29日，国内期市有色金属板块多数上涨，沪铜主力涨近4%，报101870.00元/吨；沪锡主力上涨2.41%，报346110.00元/吨；国际铜主力上涨2.72%，报91140.00元/吨。

上涨背后的因素

有色金属价格上涨是多方面因素共同作用的结果。从宏观层面看，自2025年9月美联储开启降息周期以来，宏观流动性宽松叠加冲突带来的避险情绪，对有色金属价格形成明显利好。在四季度全球宏观经济波动加剧与地缘局势冲突升级的背景下，有色金属凭借供需刚性、“反内卷”政策红利及避险属性，成为中长期资产配置的核心标的。从基本面来看，供给端上，工业金属库存当前处于历史低位，供应端约束日益突出。例如铜方面，全球精炼铜库存持续去化，截至11月30日，全球期末库存量为1451千吨，处于近35年低位，且受印尼格拉斯伯格矿区减产、智利铜企生产扰动影响，铜产能释放受限。需求端上，在绿色转型的大趋势下，新能源汽车、AI算力基础设施建设成为铜、铝消费新增长极。

未来展望与建议

展望未来，有色金属中长期配置价值凸显。不过，短期来看，市场波动风险也在增加。2025年12月26日，上海期货交易所连发两条通知，一方面提示市场做好风险控制；另一方面就元旦期间相关品种交易保证金比例、涨跌停板幅度等做出安排，以防范市场风险，维护市场稳健运行。如果你有关注有色金属投资，要密切关注宏观经济政策、供需关系变化等因素，同时注意控制风险，避免过度投机 。

Recently, the prices of non-ferrous metals have risen sharply

Recent price trend

Recently, the prices of non-ferrous metals have generally shown an upward trend. From December 22nd to 24th, 2025, the prices of precious metals soared across the board, stimulating the explosive growth of the non-ferrous metals sector in the A-share market. As of 13:50 on December 26th, the Nonferrous Metals ETF(512400) rose by 4.11%, and the CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index it tracks rose strongly by 4.09%. On December 29th, most of the non-ferrous metals sectors in the domestic futures market rose. The main force of Shanghai copper increased by nearly 4% to 101,870.00 yuan per ton. The main force of Shanghai Tin rose by 2.41% to 346,110.00 yuan per ton. The main force of international copper rose by 2.72% to 91,140.00 yuan per ton.

The factors behind the rise

The increase in non-ferrous metal prices is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors. From a macro perspective, since the Federal Reserve initiated its rate-cutting cycle in September 2025, the combination of loose macro liquidity and the risk-averse sentiment brought about by conflicts has significantly benefited the prices of non-ferrous metals. Against the backdrop of intensified global macroeconomic fluctuations and escalating geopolitical conflicts in the fourth quarter, non-ferrous metals have become the core target for medium - and long-term asset allocation, thanks to their rigid supply and demand, the policy dividends of "anti-internal competition", and their safe-haven attributes. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, industrial metal inventories are currently at historically low levels, and supply-side constraints are becoming increasingly prominent. For instance, in terms of copper, the global inventory of refined copper has been continuously decreasing. As of November 30, the global inventory at the end of the period was 1,451,000 tons, reaching a low level in nearly 35 years. Moreover, due to the reduction in production at the Glasberg mine in Indonesia and the disruption in the production of copper enterprises in Chile, the release of copper production capacity has been restricted. On the demand side, under the major trend of green transformation, new energy vehicles and the construction of AI computing power infrastructure have become new growth poles for copper and aluminum consumption.

Future Outlook and suggestions

Looking ahead, institutions believe that the medium and long-term allocation value of non-ferrous metals is prominent. However, in the short term, the risk of market volatility is also increasing. On December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued two consecutive notices. On the one hand, it reminded the market to do a good job in risk control; On the other hand, arrangements have been made for the margin ratio and the daily price fluctuation limit of relevant varieties during the New Year's Day holiday to prevent market risks and maintain the stable operation of the market. If you have been paying attention to investment in non-ferrous metals, you should closely monitor factors such as macroeconomic policies and changes in supply and demand relationships. At the same time, be sure to control risks and avoid excessive speculation.

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